Gold remains my highest conviction trade, trading near all-time highs after a powerful multi-year advance. The primary driver is persistent central bank accumulation—long-term, strategic buying to hedge against currency debasement as governments continue to spend more than they collect. This is not speculative demand; it is policy-driven and structural.
A weakening U.S. dollar further supports gold. Because gold is priced in dollars, sustained dollar softness tends to lift gold prices over time. I do not expect a durable, strong-dollar policy, as it would conflict with growth objectives and U.S. export competitiveness. For exposure, I prefer ETFs backed by physical bullion rather than paper futures.
Silver has been even more volatile. Prices have surged amid chronic supply shortages and rising demand for solar panels, EVs, data centers, and electronics. Supply remains constrained because silver is a byproduct of other mining operations, limiting the industry’s ability to respond quickly to higher prices. While silver’s long-term fundamentals are compelling, it is currently extended. I maintain limited exposure today and plan to add via a physically backed silver ETF, avoiding futures and counterparty risk.
Trump’s push for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities aims to suppress mortgage rates and support housing affordability. However, increased Treasury selling pressures bond prices and pushes yields higher, raising the cost of refinancing the national debt. If yields rise, pressure on the Federal Reserve to become more accommodative will intensify. Lower rates would likely fuel inflation and debt monetization, ultimately pushing both rates and gold higher. Gold and silver are not reacting—they are anticipating.
I also like the trends developing in emerging-market debt, high-yield bonds, and energy. Lower oil and natural gas prices improve gold miner profitability, as energy is a significant input cost. Meanwhile, junk bonds trading above their 50-day moving averages signal a healthy risk appetite.
If you’d like a second opinion on how your IRA is being managed, I’d be glad to help. As a fee-only, independent fiduciary, my interests are aligned with yours. I don’t sell commissioned annuities or insurance,
The law was given through Moses; Grace and Truth came through Jesus Christ. John 1:17