The major indexes continue their strong uptrend near all-time highs, even as some leading stocks experience periods of profit-taking. This is both normal and constructive in a healthy bull market.
The AI revolution remains the primary driver of market momentum, while support has consistently held near the 21-day moving average—signaling low volatility and underlying strength.
Interestingly, the market has largely shrugged off concerns over a potential government shutdown, unlike in prior years. A leaner government could, in fact, reduce spending and help ease longer-term interest rates—potentially lowering the cost of servicing the $37 trillion in national debt.
Macro Themes to Watch:
- Gold Reserves: U.S. gold reserves recently surpassed $1 trillion for the first time.
- Central Bank Policy: In the past 12 months, central banks globally have cut rates 168 times—the third highest tally this century. Unlike 2009 or 2020, this is not due to collapsing inflation.
- U.S. Dollar Weakness: The dollar remains in a bearish trend as the government increasingly relies on currency devaluation to service debt, fueling strength in assets like gold and Bitcoin, both of which are near all-time highs.
- Crude Oil: Oil remains in a long-term trend, which historically helps support global economic growth by lowering energy costs.
Portfolio Update
I’ve begun investing in the Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs) at Altruist and plan to increase exposure as more favorable entry points emerge. I’m optimistic that the next 10 years could be the most rewarding I’ve seen in my 35 years managing money.
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The Lord is faithful, and he will strengthen you and protect you from the evil one. 2 Thessalonians 3:3