The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 continue to trade within their upward channels, hugging their 21-day moving averages—a sign of healthy price action for a three-year-old bull market. Recently, the S&P dipped to its 50-day moving average after President Trump threatened new tariffs on China, but quickly rebounded—consistent with what we’d expect if this bull market still has room to run.
Regional banks were hit hard amid renewed concerns over subprime auto loans. Meanwhile, gold and silver pulled back after becoming overextended, a healthy shakeout of weaker hands. I recently purchased silver across all models and plan to increase our gold and silver allocations. Both metals continue to serve as a store of value against inflation and global currency debasement. Central Banks remain the largest buyers of gold, reducing their Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves on their balance sheets. Should excessive money printing ultimately undermine fiat currencies, gold could play a key role in backing or transitioning to any future global currency system. Scripture mentions a one-world government and global currency—but I don’t believe that’s imminent.
We expect the CPI report on Friday, even with the ongoing government shutdown. A soft inflation reading could give the Fed the justification it needs for lower rates. The market is already pricing in rate cuts, which tend to benefit smaller companies since they rely on bank loans rather than bond issuance to fund growth. We’re actively looking for opportunities in that space.
Bitcoin, often called “digital gold,” hasn’t lived up to the name recently—down roughly 15% since October 6. Ethereum, widely viewed as the backbone for stablecoins, has fallen about 19% over the same period. I don’t own cryptocurrencies, but we maintain a firm conviction in gold.
Artificial intelligence remains the dominant fundamental driver pushing markets higher and continues to represent our largest allocation. I’ve sold a few positions with broken technical patterns and reallocated to stronger names showing both accelerating earnings and constructive chart patterns.
Overall, I remain bullish as we trend higher within established trading channels, but I will not hesitate to sell or hedge positions to avoid life-changing losses.
May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace as you trust in him. Romans 15:13