The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 reached fresh all-time highs in October, maintaining their healthy uptrend channels. Following the Fed’s recent 25-bps rate cut, markets anticipate a favorable U.S.–China trade deal and possibly another rate reduction in December.
AI leaders continue to exceed expectations on both earnings and forward guidance. Stock price gains remain concentrated among the largest AI-driven mega caps, as their ability to scale capital expenditures widens the gap between them and smaller competitors. Our portfolios remain concentrated in AI companies with accelerating earnings and sales growth, resulting in a strong October performance.
Precious Metals and the Dollar
Gold and silver have pulled back slightly from record highs but remain in long-term uptrends. With U.S. national debt surpassing $38 trillion and annual interest expenses exceeding $1.2 trillion, the dollar’s purchasing power continues to erode. A weaker dollar benefits U.S. exporters and may help narrow the trade deficit.
Portfolio Strategy
We remain nearly fully invested across all three models and plan to deploy additional capital as new opportunities arise. Finding new setups breaking out on strong volume has become more selective as the bull market matures. One short-term risk to monitor is the upcoming Supreme Court decision on November 5th regarding the legality of Trump-era tariffs. A ruling requiring repayment of previously collected tariffs could trigger a market pullback.
Overall, we remain bullish and expect the market’s upward momentum to continue into the new year.
Rejoice in the Lord always. Philippians 4:4