The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have quietly reclaimed their 50-day moving averages on light volume, signaling a continuation of their uptrends. November’s shake-out below the 50-dma briefly threatened the April trendline, but the market now appears poised to push higher.
The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, which could give the market exactly what it wants. Quantitative Tightening ended last week after years of balance-sheet runoff, and the next phase may ultimately be a return to Quantitative Easing. If employment weakens, the Fed could use that as justification to print more money—fueling inflation but reducing the real burden of our $38 trillion national debt. With Congress unable to curb spending and unwilling to raise taxes meaningfully, monetization continues. At some point, the world may tire of fiat currencies, paving the way for a gold-backed global currency.
Gold and silver continue to trend higher as central banks keep accumulating, while Bitcoin and Ethereum have come under pressure as distribution sets in. The yen carry trade—where hedge funds borrow in yen at near-zero interest and leverage into risk assets like crypto—appears to be unwinding as Japanese bond yields hit record highs. Japan, still the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, may even be forced to sell bonds to defend the yen as it sits near multi-decade lows.
With $8 trillion sitting in money-market funds, strong seasonal tailwinds, and favorable market momentum, new highs into a year-end Santa Rally remain likely. All three Horizon Models are fully invested, with significant allocations to gold/silver, emerging markets, long/short strategies, and AI-focused funds. As always, the trend is your friend until the end when it bends—or breaks.
Don’t forget to maximize your retirement contributions: IRA limits are $8,000 for those 50 and older, SEP contributions are up to $70,000, and anyone age 72+ should be sure to take their Required Minimum Distribution.
If you’re interested in joining a group of like-minded stock, fund, and ETF investors who will meet on the third Thursday of every month in Lafayette, LA, email me at Dexter@HorizonRia.com, and I’ll be happy to add you to the list.
Today in the town of David, a Savior has been born to you; he is the Messiah, the Lord. Luke 2:11