The market has stabilized over the past seven sessions, finishing mostly flat to higher following the March 30 shakeout low and a confirmed Follow-Through Day (FTD) on Wednesday. This action suggests the potential start of a new uptrend, supported by improving sentiment after the announced two-week ceasefire. Investors increasingly believe the worst may be behind us.

As defined by William J. O’Neil, a Follow-Through Day occurs at least four days after a market low when a major index advances 1% or more on higher volume—often signaling institutional accumulation and the early stages of a new bull phase.

In the near term, the market appears due for a modest pullback toward the 50-day moving average. I plan to use that pullback to begin selectively adding exposure to leading stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds. For the uptrend to be sustainable, institutional investors should provide support near those levels.

There remains approximately $8.2 trillion sitting in money market funds—significant sidelined capital that could help fuel further upside as confidence builds.

Notably, the market rallied despite a hotter-than-expected CPI report. That type of price action often signals underlying strength and reinforces the case for continued upside momentum.

We are also seeing an unusual divergence: interest rates are rising while the U.S. dollar is weakening. Typically, higher yields attract foreign capital and support the dollar, so this disconnect suggests a larger macro force may be developing beneath the surface (stagflation).

Financials are benefiting in the current environment, as higher rates tend to expand net interest margins. However, if rates remain elevated for too long, they could eventually slow economic activity by reducing borrowing and investment.

Gold is setting up constructively. With the dollar weakening, I am monitoring for a potential breakout and may begin adding exposure.

Emerging market stocks and bonds could also benefit from a weaker dollar. One possible driver is the expectation of a widening U.S. budget deficit tied to increased spending. If the Federal Reserve is forced into debt monetization—effectively printing money to absorb new Treasury issuance—it could put upward pressure on rates while weakening the dollar.

If the Clarity Act passes ahead of the November elections, stablecoins could re-emerge as a meaningful force in the financial system. I am watching Circle Internet Group (CRCL) as a proxy for where I believe bitcoin and stablecoins may be headed. While I have not historically invested in cryptocurrency, stablecoins could play a role in how the U.S. manages its growing $39 trillion debt burden.

For 36 years, my approach has remained consistent: risk management comes first. While markets have historically recovered from crises—often supported by Federal Reserve policy—there is no guarantee they will recover on any specific timeline that aligns with investor needs.

All portfolios are up nicely year-to-date. We will remain disciplined—gradually deploying capital as conditions improve while continuing to manage risk carefully.

May the God of hope fill you with joy and peace as you trust in him, so that you may overflow with hope by the power of the Holy Spirit. Romans 15:13

All client accounts are up nicely for the year and sitting on the sidelines until we get an FTD. A Follow Through Day (FTD) occurs at least four days after a market bottom when the index closes at least 1% higher on greater volume. According to William O’Neil, an FTD has preceded every bull market, but not every FTD has led to one. O’Neil was a self-made billionaire who studied markets for decades and wrote several books on his findings. His system is one of the best I have found because it follows the common-sense logic of human emotions driven by fear and greed. I am not willing to bet my life savings on the idea that because the market has always recovered from every crisis, it will do so again exactly when I need my money. O’Neil’s system gives me the edge I need to succeed; otherwise, the house wins in the end.

The Iran war will likely cost more than anticipated, and it may eventually force the Fed to monetize the debt issued by the Treasury through Congress. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen toward the 4.4% threshold and could move higher from here. Recent reports show the 10-year yield trading between roughly 4.31% and 4.39%, with many analysts viewing 4.4% as an important level for stocks and gold.

Higher yields could attract foreign capital, strengthen the dollar, and pressure gold prices in the short term. I am short-term bearish on gold but long-term bullish because I believe the Fed will eventually print more money, which could fuel inflation and support higher gold prices over time. Gold has recently come under pressure as the dollar and Treasury yields moved higher.

The longer the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the longer oil prices are likely to remain elevated, and the more global economies could struggle. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and some analysts believe oil could rise to $150–$200 per barrel if the disruption continues.

I believe Trump will do everything in his power to bring oil prices lower before the November elections. I am watching the dollar, oil, gold, and yields closely because they will likely determine where the stock market heads next.

Happy Easter!

The curse of Yahweh is on the house of the wicked, but God blesses the house of the righteous. Psalms 3:33

The NASDAQ 100 is now in correction territory (down more than 10%), and the S&P 500 has fallen by more than 9% from its recent high. All major indexes—including junk bonds—are trading below their 50- and 200-day moving averages. Simply put, the market is not rewarding risk.

There is a time to invest, and there is a time to protect capital. We are currently on defense. Nothing good tends to happen below the 200-day moving average—or after midnight.

I am waiting for a Follow-Through Day (FTD)—a signal that the market may be putting in a bottom, marked by a strong rally (at least 1%) on above-average volume. After that, I will look for leadership: stocks breaking out with strong volume, accelerating earnings and sales, and double-digit forward estimates—the fastest horses out of the gate.

The market will likely turn higher before the war ends, as it begins to price in that outcome.

War is expensive, and markets are already reflecting those costs through rising interest rates. Sustained higher oil prices will ripple through the economy, pushing producer prices higher and ultimately feeding consumer inflation.

To fund war-related spending, Congress will likely increase fiscal outlays, while the Federal Reserve may be forced to monetize debt—effectively printing money to absorb Treasury issuance. More money creation risks fueling further inflation.

While the Fed can influence short-term rates, the market controls long-term yields—and it is demanding higher rates amid rising inflation expectations.

Higher rates pressure housing and economic growth. When slower growth meets rising inflation, the result is stagflation.

A recession could eventually break inflation—but that comes with its own challenges. In that environment, traditional long-only strategies struggle. However, downside strategies—such as shorting—can be effective in bear markets, just as long exposure works in bull markets.

Until a clear uptrend emerges, cash remains a position.

Remember: a 20% loss requires a 33% gain to break even.

Cash is King.

In him our hearts rejoice, for we trust in his holy name. Psalms 33:21

I recently exited my gold and emerging market bond positions after they broke below my defined “line in the sand.” Successful portfolio management ultimately comes down to risk management—and the discipline to act when sell signals are triggered.

As a rule-based trend follower managing IRA accounts since 1990, I don’t force investments when trends lack clarity. When conviction is low, I’m comfortable holding cash and waiting for the next high-probability opportunity—whether the trend is up or down.

If we are entering a period of stagflation—marked by slowing growth and persistent inflation—I expect downside opportunities to emerge. In that environment, inverse ETFs, which rise as markets fall, may provide a way to generate returns. Near-term direction, however, will likely depend on how quickly geopolitical conflicts resolve.

Treasury yields are rising as markets anticipate increased government spending and debt issuance. With a federal budget exceeding $7 trillion against roughly $4 trillion in tax revenue, deficits continue to expand, adding to an already elevated debt load. Historically, this has led to monetary expansion—but further money creation risks fueling inflation, tightening financial conditions, and slowing growth even more.

If stagflation persists, history suggests the eventual outcome is often recession—sometimes prolonged—to bring inflation back under control. While the Federal Reserve has intervened in past crises, there is no guarantee the same playbook will work without unintended consequences this time.

I’m also closely watching developments in stablecoins—digital assets typically designed to maintain a 1:1 value with reserves such as Treasury securities. A government-backed stablecoin could lower borrowing costs and increase demand for U.S. debt. Stablecoins are an evolving space with long-term implications, and I’m monitoring opportunities like Circle Internet Group (CRCL).

From a technical perspective, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 remain below their 200-day moving averages—a level I consider a “no-go zone.” Historically, sustained weakness below this trend line signals elevated risk. Junk bonds are trading below their 50-DMA, a sign that investors have lost their risk appetite. Cash is a position!

The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen against other currencies, reinforcing its role in global trade—particularly in oil, which is priced in dollars. Gold typically moves inversely to the dollar, so as the dollar rises, gold tends to weaken. In this environment, countries may sell gold to buy dollars to facilitate energy purchases. Additionally, easing sanctions on Iranian oil could increase supply and help moderate global oil prices.

For now, I’m comfortable holding cash equivalents, such as the PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active ETF (MINT), while waiting for clearer signals. Durable market bottoms are typically marked by capitulation—high-volume selling that exhausts weak hands—followed by a strong, confirmed rally.

Until then, I’m not assuming the Fed will once again rescue markets simply because it has in the past. Protecting capital remains the priority. We will come out and play, so let’s wait for the rain to stop and the sun to shine.

God gives wisdom to the wise and knowledge to those who have understanding. Daniel 2:21

Gold is attempting to hold its current support line as the dollar shoots higher toward a resistance line. Gold and the dollar typically have an inverse relationship, meaning when the dollar rises, gold often falls—and vice versa.

The dollar is rising as more oil is traded in dollars amid the Iran war. Once the market believes the war is nearing an end, the dollar will likely fall, and gold should resume its uptrend.

Congress will likely be forced to pass additional spending bills to finance and replenish our weapons of war. As more money is spent, the Fed may monetize the debt by creating money and buying Treasuries to finance excess government spending. As more money is created out of thin air, inflation can rise, and the cost of goods can increase. Rising prices do not cause inflation—rather, inflation causes prices to rise.

If oil demand exceeds oil supply, oil prices will rise, and we will all feel the impact because oil is embedded in nearly everything we consume.

Emerging markets had been performing well, but they broke their trend lines two weeks ago, so I sold those positions and reduced our gold exposure. We now hold a small position in gold and a larger position in the high-yielding money-market like ETF, PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active ETF (MINT).

Treasury yields are rising as bond prices fall, signaling that the market may be anticipating higher inflation ahead. The S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ‑100 Index are down about 3–5% year to date, while our portfolios are up by similar amounts.

We could be entering a stagflationary environment where economic growth slows while inflation rises. Historically, the only way out of stagflation has been a prolonged recession.

President Donald Trump will likely do everything possible to avoid a weak economy and stock market ahead of the November elections. Still, the market is far bigger than any single politician.

Price ultimately trumps everything, which is why I follow price trends. When I do not have an edge—when there is no clear trend—I wait patiently in cash until a tradable opportunity appears.

Remember: the trend is your friend… until it bends in the wind.

The LORD’s blessing brings wealth, and he adds no trouble to it. Proverbs 10:22

Gold continues to trend higher above its 50-day moving average despite the recent rally in the U.S. dollar. The dollar has been rising since its January 27 bottom, which also marked the top for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Oil prices broke out on January 22 and have continued to rise on escalating war concerns in the Middle East. Emerging markets had been benefiting from selling in U.S. equities and were performing very well, but they have recently rolled over along with the broader market. Rather than let our gains round-trip into losses year-to-date, I locked in some profits.

The dollar has been strengthening amid geopolitical tensions that are disrupting global energy markets. With sanctions limiting some countries’ access to the global financial system, including the SWIFT payment network, international trade flows can shift quickly during periods of conflict and uncertainty. These shifts can influence currency demand and capital flows across markets.

Treasury bond prices have been falling, pushing yields higher and increasing the cost of financing government debt. Rising yields can also pressure equity valuations as borrowing costs increase across the economy. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about government spending may keep upward pressure on interest rates.

Currently, we hold a large position in a short-term, money-market-like bond fund along with a smaller allocation to gold. Maintaining liquidity allows us to remain flexible while markets search for a bottom.

Once the market establishes a clearer base, I will begin looking for new opportunities. Until then, holding cash equivalents can be a prudent strategy while markets work through volatility. If oil prices continue rising sharply, the risk of slower economic growth or a recession could increase, so I am comfortable remaining patient with a combination of gold and a high-yielding money market position.

Blessed are those who find wisdom, those who gain understanding. Proverbs 3:13

Gold continues to perform well in client portfolios, along with select exposure to emerging markets. We currently have limited exposure to U.S. large-cap growth stocks, as relative strength has rotated toward international value.

Oil prices have trended higher amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Ongoing instability has supported demand for traditional “safe-haven” assets, including gold. Energy markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and supply dynamics, creating both risks and opportunities.

The U.S. dollar has shown relative weakness in recent months. Historically, periods of dollar softness have coincided with strength in hard assets such as gold, though this relationship can vary over time. Cryptocurrency markets, including Bitcoin-related ETFs, have experienced volatility despite earlier enthusiasm surrounding new product launches.

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ-100 are currently trading below their 50-day moving averages, which often signals near-term technical caution. Meanwhile, several emerging-market indexes have shown improving long-term technical patterns after extended periods of consolidation.

Within U.S. equities, leadership has narrowed, and some of last year’s strongest mega-cap technology stocks have faced distribution pressure. Market rotations are a normal part of the investment cycle, as capital shifts toward areas demonstrating stronger relative performance.

Artificial intelligence continues to disrupt multiple industries, including software development and data infrastructure. Increased data usage and AI deployment have driven investment in data centers and memory-related hardware. Companies involved in memory and storage manufacturing may benefit from sustained long-term demand, although these industries remain cyclical and subject to supply/demand fluctuations.

Client portfolios have benefited from disciplined risk management and tactical allocation adjustments this year. By emphasizing areas demonstrating relative strength while reducing exposure to higher-volatility segments, we aim to participate in upside trends while managing downside risk.

Gold has historically been viewed as a store of value over the long term, particularly during periods of currency debasement, geopolitical tension, or economic uncertainty. While past performance does not guarantee future results, we believe maintaining diversified exposure to assets with favorable technical and macro characteristics remains prudent.

We remain focused on:

• Managing risk
• Following established market trends
• Allocating capital toward areas demonstrating sustained inflows
• Avoiding emotional decision-making during periods of volatility

As always, markets evolve. Our approach is to adapt as needed and position portfolios where opportunity appears strongest, based on objective analysis and risk controls.

The LORD knows the way of the righteous, but the way of the wicked will perish. Psalm 1:6

Our exposure to gold and emerging markets has been a meaningful contributor to year-to-date performance as those areas have shown relative strength. Meanwhile, the U.S. market has been choppy and largely sideways, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 hovering near flat for the year. Last year’s leaders cooled, and capital has rotated into other sectors and regions.

We recognized this shift and repositioned client portfolios away from weakening trends and toward areas demonstrating sustained relative strength. Our edge is disciplined risk management, cutting losses short, letting winners run, and following the prevailing trend rather than fighting it.

If you don’t have a defined process and risk discipline in the markets, you are simply reacting. What is your edge?

High-yield bonds continue to trend constructively, suggesting investors are not broadly risk-averse at this time. Markets have also shown resilience amid geopolitical headlines and policy developments. The S&P 500 remains near record levels, indicating that the broader bull trend has not been decisively broken.

The U.S. dollar has been in a downtrend, while long-term Treasury yields have moved sideways. Central bank and sovereign demand for gold remains steady, providing structural support for the metal. Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” has experienced significant volatility and remains well below its prior highs, reinforcing gold’s long-standing role as a store of value.

Monetary expansion and fiscal policy remain long-term considerations for investors. Over extended periods, increases in money supply can impact purchasing power. While no one can predict the dollar’s future path with certainty, diversifying into real assets, such as gold, can serve as a hedge against currency risk and monetary instability.

We remain focused on managing risk, following trends, and positioning portfolios where capital is flowing—not where it used to be.

For the Spirit God gave us does not make us timid, but gives us power, love, and self-discipline. 2 Timothy 1:7

We remain fully invested in gold, emerging markets (EM), and EM bond funds, and we are having a profitable year by following where capital is flowing. In today’s market, most institutional money must remain invested somewhere. When sectors come under sustained selling pressure, that capital rotates rather than disappears. The key is identifying where it is going next.

Recently, we have been seeing significant institutional money flow out of the mega-cap technology names—the “Mag7” (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA)—and into gold, emerging markets, and energy. These stocks led the market higher following the April 2025 lows, but leadership is shifting. Many of these names are now trading below their 50-day moving averages and testing longer-term support near the 200-day moving average. Leadership can change quickly, and disciplined investors must adapt.

Knowing when to hold and when to fold is essential to achieving long-term financial goals. Pride can be costly in investing. Disciplined risk management, cutting losses before they damage both financial and emotional capital, is what preserves wealth over time.

The Bretton Woods Agreement, created after World War II, established a system in which 44 countries pegged their currencies to the U.S. dollar, which was convertible into gold at $35 per ounce. The IMF and World Bank were also formed. This system provided stability for global rebuilding and cemented the U.S. dollar as the center of the global financial system.

However, as more dollars were issued than could be backed by gold reserves, the imbalance grew. In 1971, President Nixon ended the convertibility of the dollar into gold, shifting the world from a gold-backed to a fiat monetary system based on confidence and credit.

In a fiat system, debt expansion is often rewarded, while savers see their purchasing power erode over time. Persistent deficits and rising national debt levels raise long-term questions about currency stability and real returns. Central banks globally have been increasing gold reserves in recent years, reflecting a desire for diversification and hard-asset stability.

Markets do not move in straight lines, and leadership rotates. The belief that markets always move higher can lead to complacency. The S&P 500 index is flat YTD, but the NASDAQ 100 index of tech stocks is down 2% YTD. History reminds us that cycles change, and disciplined investors must remain flexible.

Jesus Christ is the same yesterday and today and forever. Hebrews 13:8

Our most significant allocations remain in gold, silver, and emerging-market bond funds. Precious metals continue to act as a store of value during periods of currency uncertainty and elevated global debt levels. While Bitcoin has been volatile since its late-2025 highs, central banks around the world continue to accumulate gold as a reserve asset and diversification tool. For over two millennia, gold has served as a monetary anchor during periods of fiscal and economic stress.

Risk management remains our top priority. We are not buy-and-hold investors by default—we focus on what is working now and adjust as trends change. When risk rises, we will move to a defensive posture to protect capital.

Emerging-market equities are trending higher, and emerging-market bonds (EMBs) are also strengthening. From a risk-adjusted standpoint, we currently favor emerging-market bonds over stocks. As developing economies grow and stabilize, improving credit quality can support bond prices and income potential. For that reason, emerging-market bonds represent one of our largest portfolio weightings at this time.

Global demographics and debt levels continue to shape the macro environment. Many developed countries are facing aging populations and slower growth, while others continue to expand. Fiscal pressures and rising debt burdens remain long-term challenges for many governments, including the United States. These factors can influence currencies, interest rates, and asset performance over time.

For 2026, our highest-conviction themes remain precious metals and emerging-market bonds. That said, our views are driven by trends—not ideology. When trends change, allocations will change. We monitor markets daily and focus on assets showing persistent price strength and favorable risk-reward characteristics.

As always, preserving capital while participating in strong trends is job #1.

In the beginning God created the heavens and the earth. Genisis 1:1