The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 reached fresh all-time highs in October, maintaining their healthy uptrend channels. Following the Fed’s recent 25-bps rate cut, markets anticipate a favorable U.S.–China trade deal and possibly another rate reduction in December.

AI leaders continue to exceed expectations on both earnings and forward guidance. Stock price gains remain concentrated among the largest AI-driven mega caps, as their ability to scale capital expenditures widens the gap between them and smaller competitors. Our portfolios remain concentrated in AI companies with accelerating earnings and sales growth, resulting in a strong October performance.

Precious Metals and the Dollar
Gold and silver have pulled back slightly from record highs but remain in long-term uptrends. With U.S. national debt surpassing $38 trillion and annual interest expenses exceeding $1.2 trillion, the dollar’s purchasing power continues to erode. A weaker dollar benefits U.S. exporters and may help narrow the trade deficit.

Portfolio Strategy
We remain nearly fully invested across all three models and plan to deploy additional capital as new opportunities arise. Finding new setups breaking out on strong volume has become more selective as the bull market matures. One short-term risk to monitor is the upcoming Supreme Court decision on November 5th regarding the legality of Trump-era tariffs. A ruling requiring repayment of previously collected tariffs could trigger a market pullback.

Overall, we remain bullish and expect the market’s upward momentum to continue into the new year.

Rejoice in the Lord always. Philippians 4:4

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 hit fresh all-time highs Friday after a tame CPI report showed inflation cooling more than expected — giving the Fed an all-clear cut rates next Wednesday. Markets love lower rates, and small caps followed suit, with the Russell 2000 also reaching new highs. November is historically a strong month for small caps, so I’m actively looking for new opportunities in that space.

This has been the strongest earnings season in four years, fueled by massive capital expenditures in the AI sector. Data center order backlogs accelerated in the third quarter, and analysts expect continued strength and price gains into the fourth quarter.

A mean reversion algorithm triggered a sharp pullback early in the week, hitting the top 10% of Russell 3000 performers since August 1st — some fell over 5% intraday on Tuesday before rebounding by Friday. These shakeouts are healthy in a bull market, as they flush out weaker hands and set the stage for renewed advances. I used the opportunity to sell stocks with broken charts and add to positions that continue to show leadership.

Gold also experienced volatility, dropping roughly 5% on Tuesday before reversing higher as central bank buying resumed. Since the U.S. seized Russian assets following the Ukraine invasion, many central banks have reduced Treasury holdings and increased gold reserves as a store-of-value hedge. This trend is likely to continue as U.S. debt and deficits expand. Historically, excessive money printing has been the downfall of great nations — a cautionary reminder for our time.

We remain nearly fully invested in all three models and plan to deploy additional capital as new opportunities arise. REITs have also caught my attention, as several are breaking out of constructive bases on strong volume. I remain bullish as the market trades within its upper and lower trend channels.

Do to others as you would have them do to you. Luke 6:31

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 continue to trade within their upward channels, hugging their 21-day moving averages—a sign of healthy price action for a three-year-old bull market. Recently, the S&P dipped to its 50-day moving average after President Trump threatened new tariffs on China, but quickly rebounded—consistent with what we’d expect if this bull market still has room to run.

Regional banks were hit hard amid renewed concerns over subprime auto loans. Meanwhile, gold and silver pulled back after becoming overextended, a healthy shakeout of weaker hands. I recently purchased silver across all models and plan to increase our gold and silver allocations. Both metals continue to serve as a store of value against inflation and global currency debasement. Central Banks remain the largest buyers of gold, reducing their Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves on their balance sheets. Should excessive money printing ultimately undermine fiat currencies, gold could play a key role in backing or transitioning to any future global currency system. Scripture mentions a one-world government and global currency—but I don’t believe that’s imminent.

We expect the CPI report on Friday, even with the ongoing government shutdown. A soft inflation reading could give the Fed the justification it needs for lower rates. The market is already pricing in rate cuts, which tend to benefit smaller companies since they rely on bank loans rather than bond issuance to fund growth. We’re actively looking for opportunities in that space.

Bitcoin, often called “digital gold,” hasn’t lived up to the name recently—down roughly 15% since October 6. Ethereum, widely viewed as the backbone for stablecoins, has fallen about 19% over the same period. I don’t own cryptocurrencies, but we maintain a firm conviction in gold.

Artificial intelligence remains the dominant fundamental driver pushing markets higher and continues to represent our largest allocation. I’ve sold a few positions with broken technical patterns and reallocated to stronger names showing both accelerating earnings and constructive chart patterns.

Overall, I remain bullish as we trend higher within established trading channels, but I will not hesitate to sell or hedge positions to avoid life-changing losses.

May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace as you trust in him. Romans 15:13

A social media post from President Trump threatening a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1—combined with China’s export controls on rare earths—added fresh fuel to fears about global supply chains and technology sector exposure. The S&P 500 fell roughly 3% on Friday, testing support at its 50-day moving average (50-DMA) on above-average volume, raising concern. If that support fails to hold, downside momentum could accelerate quickly.

That said, I suspect trillions in sidelined cash may view this pullback as an opportunity to buy leading AI stocks. Artificial intelligence and declining short-term rates remain the dominant fundamental drivers of this three-year-old bull market. I remain bullish, but I’ll continue to let the charts guide me—because price is the only thing that pays.

For perspective, there were roughly 275 IPOs in 1999 before that market peaked, compared to only 30 IPOs this year, suggesting we are not in a bubble. Likewise, stock splits are not rampant as they were during prior euphoric tops. However, junk bonds are now trading below their 50-DMA, a signal that risk appetite may be fading, even as AI stocks remain technically constructive.

Gold continues to trend higher, hovering near all-time highs as an inflation hedge, while the U.S. dollar weakens and bonds rally. Oil prices are falling as supply increases and future demand expectations soften. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dropped over 3% on heavy volume, testing its 50-DMA and disappointing those who viewed it as a haven. Ethereum fell about 8%, breaking key support on huge volume—a negative sign for the broader crypto sector. I have no crypto exposure, but I do maintain some gold holdings and may add on weakness.

Most of the new liquidity in the system today originates from the private sector—mainly through commercial bank credit creation and U.S. government deficits—rather than direct Federal Reserve actions. This surge in private credit, combined with massive AI-driven capital expenditures and energy transition funding, is reshaping global markets.

One area to watch closely is high-yield credit. The bankruptcies of The First Brands Group (maker of FRAM oil filters and TRICO wiper blades) and Tricolor pose minor contagion risks, but they likely contributed to Friday’s selloff. The sharp decline in Jefferies Financial could serve as a canary in the coal mine, signaling potential stress building in the credit markets. Meanwhile, retail and restaurant stocks are weakening, suggesting that consumers are increasingly stretched, facing higher prices without matching wage growth.

Those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. Isaiah 40:31

The major indexes continue their strong uptrend near all-time highs, even as some leading stocks experience periods of profit-taking. This is both normal and constructive in a healthy bull market.

The AI revolution remains the primary driver of market momentum, while support has consistently held near the 21-day moving average—signaling low volatility and underlying strength.

Interestingly, the market has largely shrugged off concerns over a potential government shutdown, unlike in prior years. A leaner government could, in fact, reduce spending and help ease longer-term interest rates—potentially lowering the cost of servicing the $37 trillion in national debt.

Macro Themes to Watch:

• Gold Reserves: U.S. gold reserves recently surpassed $1 trillion for the first time.
• Central Bank Policy: In the past 12 months, central banks globally have cut rates 168 times—the third highest tally this century. Unlike 2009 or 2020, this is not due to collapsing inflation.
• U.S. Dollar Weakness: The dollar remains in a bearish trend as the government increasingly relies on currency devaluation to service debt, fueling strength in assets like gold and Bitcoin, both of which are near all-time highs.
• Crude Oil: Oil remains in a long-term trend, which historically helps support global economic growth by lowering energy costs.

Portfolio Update

I’ve begun investing in the Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs) at Altruist and plan to increase exposure as more favorable entry points emerge. I’m optimistic that the next 10 years could be the most rewarding I’ve seen in my 35 years managing money.

Thank you for your continued trust. If you’d like to add to your IRA or taxable account, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

• 2025 IRA limit: $8,000
• 2025 SEP-IRA limit: $70,000

The Lord is faithful, and he will strengthen you and protect you from the evil one. 2 Thessalonians 3:3

The market is undergoing some healthy digestion as expected after many leading stocks became extended. This is normal in a bull market. The overall trend remains up — and as the saying goes, “the trend is your friend until it ends, when it bends.”

We are in the midst of a game-changing, AI-driven, disruptive technology boom — now turbocharged by Fed rate cuts and a pro-growth administration. This combination of powerful technical and fundamental tailwinds could propel this bull market for another five to ten years. That said, we should expect 20% corrections along the way as part of a normal cycle.

Gold & Inflation Outlook
Gold continues to exhibit evidence of institutional and central bank accumulation, with price gains occurring on above-average trading volumes. Central banks are positioning for higher inflation, anticipating that massive government spending will lead to more money printing to finance the growing debt. While interest costs on the national debt will eventually become an issue, the bond market currently shows little concern. However, bonds will be vulnerable if inflation accelerates and interest rates rise.

Dollar & Macro View
Both the U.S. dollar and bonds remain in a trading range for now, but I expect the dollar to weaken into Q4 as the administration does not appear committed to a strong-dollar policy. A weaker dollar supports U.S. exporters by making their goods more affordable abroad — thereby boosting their profits at home.

Consumer Health
Walmart is consolidating near new highs, a sign that consumer confidence remains resilient. While we’ve seen some climactic action in certain leading stocks, there have not been enough climax runs to suggest we are at a major market top. With roughly $7.7 trillion still sitting in money markets, there is ample fuel for this rally — even if much of that cash may be waiting on the sidelines, reluctant to participate.

Portfolio Update
I’m pleased to report that 99% of Issachar Fund assets have now been successfully transferred to Altruist, where I will continue to actively manage them according to Models: Stock, Fund, or BRI. I am more excited than ever to participate in what I believe may be the greatest investment opportunity I have seen in my 35 years of managing client capital.

“May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace as you trust in him.” Romans 15:13

The major indexes remain extended, trading near all-time highs and at the upper end of their uptrend channels—where some price digestion is expected. However, with approximately $7.7 trillion in money markets (up from $7.2 trillion just last month), this bull market rally may still have room to run before we see significant profit-taking.

The Fed’s 25 bps rate cut signals more easing ahead, with its focus shifting from its arbitrary 2% inflation target to boosting employment—even if that means tolerating higher inflation. AI continues to act as a powerful deflationary force by making businesses more efficient. Perhaps it’s time for the Fed to stop trying to micromanage the business cycle and let the free market drive growth, as capitalism was designed to do.

We are in the midst of a raging AI-driven disruptive technology boom, now being supercharged by a pro-growth President who is cutting taxes and reducing regulations to spur American innovation. The next five to ten years could deliver some of the best stock market returns I’ve seen in my 35 years of managing money.

Historically, when transportation stocks (trucks, rails, airlines) were strong, it confirmed that the market rally had legs. Today, semiconductors are the new transportation stocks—instead of moving goods, they move data, which is now the world’s most valuable commodity. With semis breaking out and the economy still strong, I expect this bull market to trend higher—though not in a straight line.

Portfolio Update
All client accounts have now been opened, and the transfer process is underway. I expect Issachar Fund shares will be sold and cash transferred to the Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs) at Altruist by September 29th. Once the cash appears in client accounts, I will actively manage them according to our strategy.

Horizon is an independent, fee-only Registered Investment Advisor and Fiduciary, legally and ethically bound to act in your best interest. At Altruist, there are zero commissions or custodial fees, and accounts are FDIC-insured for cash and SIPC-protected for securities.

“ God is love.”   John 4:8

The major indexes finished near all-time highs last week as investors anticipated a Fed rate cut this Wednesday. If the market “sells the news,” I plan to use any pullback as a buying opportunity — adding positions in leading stocks near their 50-day moving averages.

The market seems to be signaling a stagflationary environment — slowing growth with inflation still north of 3%. While the Fed’s 2% inflation target remains out of reach, it is more concerned with softening employment data. Futures markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25-bps cut, with several more expected into next year — and markets historically love lower rates.

The dollar continues its downtrend, pushing gold higher and yields lower. Junk bonds are trending up, signaling investor risk appetite. Bitcoin consolidates and looks ready to rally, and Ethereum is close to breaking out as more stable coins use its network. Stablecoins backed by the dollar support both the dollar and U.S. Treasuries — a trend that makes me more optimistic on Ethereum.

Oil prices are trending lower as supply expands, putting pressure on Russia’s war efforts — drill, baby, drill! Small caps are near all-time highs, indicating a broadening bull market. Walmart and United Airlines remain strong, signaling healthy consumer demand, though restaurants like Cava and Texas Roadhouse are struggling with margin pressures. Meanwhile, AI remains the market’s dominant growth theme and continues firing on all cylinders.

Portfolio Update:
Approximately 99% of Issachar Fund shareholders have completed their online transfer forms to move assets to Altruist, where I will continue to manage them in Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs). The process should be fully completed in about three weeks.

As funds arrive, I will manage them according to the model you selected — Stocks (most popular), Funds, or BRI — all seeking to capture gains in bull markets and preserve capital in bear markets. Horizon is an independent, fee-only Registered Investment Advisor and Fiduciary, legally and ethically bound to act in your best interest. There are zero commissions or custodial fees at Altruist, and accounts are FDIC-insured for cash and SIPC-protected for securities.

Visit HorizonRIA.com for more details.

“You are the light of the world.” – Matthew 5:14

Friday’s weak jobs report sparked a major leadership rotation — money flowed out of extended high P/E leaders and into value-oriented small caps, with the Russell 2000 leading the charge. Treasury markets rallied sharply: 30-year bond prices rose on above-average volume, 2-year yields plunged, and the 10-year yield hit its lowest level since April at 4.07%, which should support housing-related stocks.

The popular short IWM / long QQQ trade is clearly unwinding. Investors are now pricing in a 100% probability of a September 17th rate cut, which would be the first since last December, as the Fed responds to slowing economic data.

Portfolio Update:
To improve performance and service, I will be closing the Issachar Fund on September 29th and transferring all assets to Altruist, where I will manage client accounts as Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs). Altruist is the 3rd-largest RIA custodian, meaning your assets remain safe, protected, and insured. This move allows me to invest in my best ideas without the restrictions of an SEC-registered mutual fund. I am excited about this new chapter — and confident that the next five to ten years could be some of my best, thanks to the powerful opportunities I see in the AI revolution. Please get in touch with me if you would like me to manage your account: HorizonRia.com.

Macro & Market Trends:

• Gold & Hard Assets: For the first time since 1996, foreign central banks hold more gold than U.S. Treasury securities — a significant shift toward hard assets. With the dollar and oil declining, gold prices may have room to run.
• Oil & Geopolitics: Lower oil prices hurt war-driven economies like Russia, potentially pressuring them toward peace sooner rather than later.
• Crypto: Bitcoin is losing ground to Ethereum, which benefits from its growing dominance in stablecoins.
• Risk Appetite: Junk bonds continue trending higher, signaling investor willingness to take on risk.

Seasonality & Outlook:
September is historically the weakest month of the year — and things could get ugly if the Fed surprises markets by not cutting rates. A policy misstep could risk stagflation (slowing growth + rising inflation from tariffs). Still, the Nasdaq remains just 1% off its highs and is sitting on its 21-day moving average — a sign of underlying strength during a typically weak period.

If we get the expected cut, Q4 could be explosive!

Love your neighbor as yourself. Matthew 22:39

The indexes pulled back Friday on below-average volume, which I view as healthy profit-taking. We’re seeing some rotation out of growth stocks and into more value-oriented names—particularly homebuilders. These stocks tend to benefit from lower rates, and the market is looking ahead to the Fed’s September 17th meeting with expectations for a rate cut. That outlook is supported by weakening employment data and dissent from three Fed members at the last meeting who opposed Powell’s decision to hold steady. Adding fuel to the debate, Trump recently dismissed a Fed governor and intends to appoint a more dovish replacement, likely increasing pressure on Powell to ease.

It’s important to remember that while the Fed controls the Fed Funds rate, it does not directly control mortgage rates—and those are the key driver behind the homebuilding rally.

Meanwhile, gold continues inching toward all-time highs as the dollar weakens. Bitcoin faces selling pressure, with Ethereum stepping into a leadership role thanks to strong stablecoin demand. Treasury bonds remain rangebound as debt levels soar. On the trade front, Trump’s tariffs were declared illegal last week, with an appeal headed to the Supreme Court. Since markets managed to rally with tariffs in place, there’s a reasonable chance stocks could move even higher if they’re reversed—though international acceptance of the tariffs means the outcome remains uncertain.

Overall, I remain bullish.

Do to others as you would have them do to you. Luke 6:31