Please take a moment to leave us a 5-Star Review for Horizon Capital Management, Inc.—it truly helps.

If you’re interested in joining a group of like-minded stock, fund, and ETF investors who meet once a month in Lafayette, LA, email me at Dexter@HorizonRia.com, and I’ll be happy to add you to the list.

Contribution Limits:
• IRA contributions for 2025 remain $7,000 for workers and $8,000 for those age 50+.
• The SEP-IRA maximum is $70,000, so it’s not too late to open or contribute to your account. Contact me if you’d like assistance.

Market Overview:
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have reclaimed their 50-DMA lines of support on declining Thanksgiving-week volume and appear to be back in gear, heading higher. I expect the market to resume the uptrend channel that began after the April “tariff tantrum” lows. Markets currently anticipate a 25-bps rate cut at the December 12 FOMC meeting—typically supportive of economic growth and corporate profits. Lower rates are especially constructive for housing stocks, Biotech, and small caps, which tend to be capital-intensive.

Gold, Silver & Bitcoin:
Gold and silver remain in solid uptrends, with silver at new all-time highs and gold roughly 4% from making its own. Bitcoin sits about 27% off its peak and appears to be losing its “digital gold” status.
Gold has preserved purchasing power for over 2,000 years, while the dollar steadily loses purchasing power due to inflation, driven in part by the expansion of the money supply needed to finance the government’s $38 trillion national debt. Because I do not expect Congress to curb deficit spending, I expect gold’s uptrend to continue. Gold remains my highest conviction trade and is the largest position in client accounts at Altruist.

Key Drivers:
AI, lower taxes, and lighter regulation continue to be fundamental forces pushing stock prices higher. The Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on the legality of the Trump tariffs. If those tariffs are reversed, the market may react negatively.

Portfolio Management Update:
To help reduce volatility in client accounts, I’ve been emphasizing mutual funds and ETFs over individual stocks. This approach is expected to mean fewer trades, lower overall risk, and improved long-term returns.

Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving—we are grateful for a God who loves each of us unconditionally.

May the Lord make your love increase and overflow for each other. 1 Thessalonians 3:12

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ broke below their 50-day moving average last Monday on above-average volume and were unable to reclaim them by Friday. We did get an undercut and rally from Thursday’s low—classic shakeout action—which can set the stage for a bounce next week. Still, the indexes have held the 50-dma since May, so losing it now raises the odds of sideways consolidation at best, or a deeper correction if we see actual capitulation selling.

NVIDIA posted a beat-and-raise quarter Wednesday after the close, sparking a Thursday morning rally—only for the indexes to produce a rare outside-day reversal on heavy volume. That kind of distribution day is a yellow flag. Until the indexes trade back above their 50-dma, this remains a higher-risk environment.

Bitcoin is down over 30% from its 10/6/25 high, and that sharp decline likely contributed to Thursday’s reversal. Crypto is highly leveraged, and when margin calls hit, brokerages often sell equities indiscriminately to raise cash. Meanwhile, the delayed September jobs report came in much stronger than expected, reducing confidence in a December rate cut. Fed futures dropped to 39% odds of a December 10th cut on Thursday before rebounding to over 70% by Friday.

Home foreclosures have spiked 20%, and auto-loan delinquencies have surged 50%—the worst since 2008. A pending Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs could also disrupt the administration’s agenda if reversed.

For now, big institutional money is hiding in healthcare, medical, staples, and energy while AI takes a breather. The break below the 50-dma may still be just a normal pullback in a long-term uptrend, but the risk can’t be ignored.

Lastly, Japan’s SoftBank reportedly sold its entire Nvidia stake, purchased OpenAI, and then saw its own shares fall from ~$90 to ~$56 (~40%). OpenAI’s circular financing arrangements with public AI companies—and its rapid cash burn—are worth monitoring. I don’t believe the AI bubble is bursting, but this is an area of heightened sensitivity.

May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace as you trust in him. Romans 15:13

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 briefly traded below their 50-day moving averages on Friday, shaking out weak hands before reclaiming this key institutional support level—a classic, healthy pullback. Big money stepped in during the dip, taking advantage of the temporary dislocation.

The market’s biggest concern is the Fed’s hawkish tone. Investors had been expecting a December rate cut, but recent comments suggest that may be off the table. With consumer spending—70% of GDP—potentially slowing and AI-driven job displacement on the horizon, the risk of weakening demand is real. If the recent government shutdown shaved GDP growth, we could see rising unemployment alongside still-elevated prices. In that scenario, the Fed may be forced to err on the side of lower rates, which carries inflation risk and the possibility of a stagflationary backdrop.

One potential pressure valve: declining rents could soften CPI data on Thursday. Holiday spending may also provide a psychological lift to the market.

My largest positions remain gold and silver. With $38 trillion in national debt and rising deficits, the Fed will likely need to print more money over time—diluting the dollar and supporting hard assets. Global central banks continue to accumulate gold as a currency hedge, and with the U.S. approaching the 250-year mark as a global superpower, it’s prudent not to assume the dollar’s reserve status is permanent. I try to invest where the puck is going—not where it’s been.

On the AI front, OpenAI’s circular investment expectations have raised concerns about valuation excesses reminiscent of the 2000 bubble. But I believe this time is different because many AI-linked companies are posting real, accelerating earnings and sales. We’re not seeing the reckless IPO surge or takeover frenzy that preceded the dot-com collapse.

Crypto is telling a different story. Bitcoin has sliced below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages, while Ethereum tests its own 200-day moving average. The speculative unwind in crypto may rotate into AI and biotech. With over 100% short interest in some biotech ETFs, I’m watching for accelerating fundamentals that could fuel a meaningful short squeeze.

Bonds didn’t enjoy a flight-to-safety bid during the recent equity weakness, another signal that the broader bull market remains intact and likely to continue trading within its up-trending channel.

Housing remains tight. Foreclosure starts are up 20% from last year, and discussions about 50-year mortgages are increasing. Immigration has likely contributed to the supply shortage. Meanwhile, Trump is floating ideas like penalty-free 401(k) borrowing and enhanced mortgage tax credits.

Bottom line: I remain bullish. The indexes reclaimed their 50-day moving averages exactly as I had hoped, and December is historically a strong month for equities. Markets have their shocks and aftershocks, but over time, they tend to give more than they take.

Stock Model (aggressive): ARGX, AVGO, BIL, CLS, CRDO, CRWD, DY, ESLT, INCY, LITE, MEDP, PHYS, PLTR, PSLV, PWR, SHOP, SNOW, STX, TSLA, VEEV, VRT, ZS

BRI Model (Biblically Responsible Investing): AVGO, BIL, CLS, CRDO, DY, ESLT, INCY, MEDP, PHYS, PLTR, PSLV, PSTG, PWR, SNOW, TSM, VRT, ZS

Fund Model (conservative): AGEYX, CBYYX, NPSRX, PHYS, PSLV

(Horizon’s Model Allocations may change at any time. For informational purposes only and not investment advice.)

The Lord goes before you, and he will never leave you nor forsake you. Deuteronomy 31:8

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 undercut their 50-day moving averages (50-DMA) to shake out weak holders before rallying into the close — a strong bullish signal. This appears to be a typical pullback, designed to alleviate some of the froth in a healthy bull market. When institutional investors are unable to complete their allocations during the week, they often add aggressively on Fridays. That late-week strength is a classic sign of accumulation and institutional support. Following the successful test of the 50-DMA, I anticipate the rally to continue.

Gold and silver have been consolidating their recent advances, trading sideways while holding their 21-day moving averages (DMA) and staying comfortably above their 50-day moving average (DMA) support lines. Institutions typically defend positions at the 50-DMA because they know retail investors tend to sell if it breaks. Central banks remain steady buyers of gold and silver as they diversify away from the U.S. dollar. With the dollar trending lower, commodities such as gold and silver are expected to continue performing well, given their inverse correlation. I continue to like both metals as inflation hedges and non-correlated diversifiers to traditional equity portfolios.

AI remains the dominant market driver as capital expenditures fuel strong sales and earnings growth across the sector. That said, a prolonged government shutdown could push the economy toward recession, and restaurant stocks are already trading as if the consumer is tapped out. Importantly, we’re not seeing a surge of IPOs, which suggests this is not a speculative bubble top.

Oil remains in a long-term downtrend as supply rises and demand stays steady. Bonds are range-bound, while Bitcoin is in a short-term downtrend—trading below its 50-DMA but holding at the 200-DMA. I don’t own Bitcoin, but we do hold significant gold positions in client accounts. We remain nearly fully invested across all model portfolios at Altruist. The bull market has more room to run!

God is love. John 4:8

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 reached fresh all-time highs in October, maintaining their healthy uptrend channels. Following the Fed’s recent 25-bps rate cut, markets anticipate a favorable U.S.–China trade deal and possibly another rate reduction in December.

AI leaders continue to exceed expectations on both earnings and forward guidance. Stock price gains remain concentrated among the largest AI-driven mega caps, as their ability to scale capital expenditures widens the gap between them and smaller competitors. Our portfolios remain concentrated in AI companies with accelerating earnings and sales growth, resulting in a strong October performance.

Precious Metals and the Dollar
Gold and silver have pulled back slightly from record highs but remain in long-term uptrends. With U.S. national debt surpassing $38 trillion and annual interest expenses exceeding $1.2 trillion, the dollar’s purchasing power continues to erode. A weaker dollar benefits U.S. exporters and may help narrow the trade deficit.

Portfolio Strategy
We remain nearly fully invested across all three models and plan to deploy additional capital as new opportunities arise. Finding new setups breaking out on strong volume has become more selective as the bull market matures. One short-term risk to monitor is the upcoming Supreme Court decision on November 5th regarding the legality of Trump-era tariffs. A ruling requiring repayment of previously collected tariffs could trigger a market pullback.

Overall, we remain bullish and expect the market’s upward momentum to continue into the new year.

Rejoice in the Lord always. Philippians 4:4

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 hit fresh all-time highs Friday after a tame CPI report showed inflation cooling more than expected — giving the Fed an all-clear cut rates next Wednesday. Markets love lower rates, and small caps followed suit, with the Russell 2000 also reaching new highs. November is historically a strong month for small caps, so I’m actively looking for new opportunities in that space.

This has been the strongest earnings season in four years, fueled by massive capital expenditures in the AI sector. Data center order backlogs accelerated in the third quarter, and analysts expect continued strength and price gains into the fourth quarter.

A mean reversion algorithm triggered a sharp pullback early in the week, hitting the top 10% of Russell 3000 performers since August 1st — some fell over 5% intraday on Tuesday before rebounding by Friday. These shakeouts are healthy in a bull market, as they flush out weaker hands and set the stage for renewed advances. I used the opportunity to sell stocks with broken charts and add to positions that continue to show leadership.

Gold also experienced volatility, dropping roughly 5% on Tuesday before reversing higher as central bank buying resumed. Since the U.S. seized Russian assets following the Ukraine invasion, many central banks have reduced Treasury holdings and increased gold reserves as a store-of-value hedge. This trend is likely to continue as U.S. debt and deficits expand. Historically, excessive money printing has been the downfall of great nations — a cautionary reminder for our time.

We remain nearly fully invested in all three models and plan to deploy additional capital as new opportunities arise. REITs have also caught my attention, as several are breaking out of constructive bases on strong volume. I remain bullish as the market trades within its upper and lower trend channels.

Do to others as you would have them do to you. Luke 6:31

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 continue to trade within their upward channels, hugging their 21-day moving averages—a sign of healthy price action for a three-year-old bull market. Recently, the S&P dipped to its 50-day moving average after President Trump threatened new tariffs on China, but quickly rebounded—consistent with what we’d expect if this bull market still has room to run.

Regional banks were hit hard amid renewed concerns over subprime auto loans. Meanwhile, gold and silver pulled back after becoming overextended, a healthy shakeout of weaker hands. I recently purchased silver across all models and plan to increase our gold and silver allocations. Both metals continue to serve as a store of value against inflation and global currency debasement. Central Banks remain the largest buyers of gold, reducing their Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves on their balance sheets. Should excessive money printing ultimately undermine fiat currencies, gold could play a key role in backing or transitioning to any future global currency system. Scripture mentions a one-world government and global currency—but I don’t believe that’s imminent.

We expect the CPI report on Friday, even with the ongoing government shutdown. A soft inflation reading could give the Fed the justification it needs for lower rates. The market is already pricing in rate cuts, which tend to benefit smaller companies since they rely on bank loans rather than bond issuance to fund growth. We’re actively looking for opportunities in that space.

Bitcoin, often called “digital gold,” hasn’t lived up to the name recently—down roughly 15% since October 6. Ethereum, widely viewed as the backbone for stablecoins, has fallen about 19% over the same period. I don’t own cryptocurrencies, but we maintain a firm conviction in gold.

Artificial intelligence remains the dominant fundamental driver pushing markets higher and continues to represent our largest allocation. I’ve sold a few positions with broken technical patterns and reallocated to stronger names showing both accelerating earnings and constructive chart patterns.

Overall, I remain bullish as we trend higher within established trading channels, but I will not hesitate to sell or hedge positions to avoid life-changing losses.

May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace as you trust in him. Romans 15:13

A social media post from President Trump threatening a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1—combined with China’s export controls on rare earths—added fresh fuel to fears about global supply chains and technology sector exposure. The S&P 500 fell roughly 3% on Friday, testing support at its 50-day moving average (50-DMA) on above-average volume, raising concern. If that support fails to hold, downside momentum could accelerate quickly.

That said, I suspect trillions in sidelined cash may view this pullback as an opportunity to buy leading AI stocks. Artificial intelligence and declining short-term rates remain the dominant fundamental drivers of this three-year-old bull market. I remain bullish, but I’ll continue to let the charts guide me—because price is the only thing that pays.

For perspective, there were roughly 275 IPOs in 1999 before that market peaked, compared to only 30 IPOs this year, suggesting we are not in a bubble. Likewise, stock splits are not rampant as they were during prior euphoric tops. However, junk bonds are now trading below their 50-DMA, a signal that risk appetite may be fading, even as AI stocks remain technically constructive.

Gold continues to trend higher, hovering near all-time highs as an inflation hedge, while the U.S. dollar weakens and bonds rally. Oil prices are falling as supply increases and future demand expectations soften. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dropped over 3% on heavy volume, testing its 50-DMA and disappointing those who viewed it as a haven. Ethereum fell about 8%, breaking key support on huge volume—a negative sign for the broader crypto sector. I have no crypto exposure, but I do maintain some gold holdings and may add on weakness.

Most of the new liquidity in the system today originates from the private sector—mainly through commercial bank credit creation and U.S. government deficits—rather than direct Federal Reserve actions. This surge in private credit, combined with massive AI-driven capital expenditures and energy transition funding, is reshaping global markets.

One area to watch closely is high-yield credit. The bankruptcies of The First Brands Group (maker of FRAM oil filters and TRICO wiper blades) and Tricolor pose minor contagion risks, but they likely contributed to Friday’s selloff. The sharp decline in Jefferies Financial could serve as a canary in the coal mine, signaling potential stress building in the credit markets. Meanwhile, retail and restaurant stocks are weakening, suggesting that consumers are increasingly stretched, facing higher prices without matching wage growth.

Those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. Isaiah 40:31

The major indexes continue their strong uptrend near all-time highs, even as some leading stocks experience periods of profit-taking. This is both normal and constructive in a healthy bull market.

The AI revolution remains the primary driver of market momentum, while support has consistently held near the 21-day moving average—signaling low volatility and underlying strength.

Interestingly, the market has largely shrugged off concerns over a potential government shutdown, unlike in prior years. A leaner government could, in fact, reduce spending and help ease longer-term interest rates—potentially lowering the cost of servicing the $37 trillion in national debt.

Macro Themes to Watch:

• Gold Reserves: U.S. gold reserves recently surpassed $1 trillion for the first time.
• Central Bank Policy: In the past 12 months, central banks globally have cut rates 168 times—the third highest tally this century. Unlike 2009 or 2020, this is not due to collapsing inflation.
• U.S. Dollar Weakness: The dollar remains in a bearish trend as the government increasingly relies on currency devaluation to service debt, fueling strength in assets like gold and Bitcoin, both of which are near all-time highs.
• Crude Oil: Oil remains in a long-term trend, which historically helps support global economic growth by lowering energy costs.

Portfolio Update

I’ve begun investing in the Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs) at Altruist and plan to increase exposure as more favorable entry points emerge. I’m optimistic that the next 10 years could be the most rewarding I’ve seen in my 35 years managing money.

Thank you for your continued trust. If you’d like to add to your IRA or taxable account, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

• 2025 IRA limit: $8,000
• 2025 SEP-IRA limit: $70,000

The Lord is faithful, and he will strengthen you and protect you from the evil one. 2 Thessalonians 3:3

The market is undergoing some healthy digestion as expected after many leading stocks became extended. This is normal in a bull market. The overall trend remains up — and as the saying goes, “the trend is your friend until it ends, when it bends.”

We are in the midst of a game-changing, AI-driven, disruptive technology boom — now turbocharged by Fed rate cuts and a pro-growth administration. This combination of powerful technical and fundamental tailwinds could propel this bull market for another five to ten years. That said, we should expect 20% corrections along the way as part of a normal cycle.

Gold & Inflation Outlook
Gold continues to exhibit evidence of institutional and central bank accumulation, with price gains occurring on above-average trading volumes. Central banks are positioning for higher inflation, anticipating that massive government spending will lead to more money printing to finance the growing debt. While interest costs on the national debt will eventually become an issue, the bond market currently shows little concern. However, bonds will be vulnerable if inflation accelerates and interest rates rise.

Dollar & Macro View
Both the U.S. dollar and bonds remain in a trading range for now, but I expect the dollar to weaken into Q4 as the administration does not appear committed to a strong-dollar policy. A weaker dollar supports U.S. exporters by making their goods more affordable abroad — thereby boosting their profits at home.

Consumer Health
Walmart is consolidating near new highs, a sign that consumer confidence remains resilient. While we’ve seen some climactic action in certain leading stocks, there have not been enough climax runs to suggest we are at a major market top. With roughly $7.7 trillion still sitting in money markets, there is ample fuel for this rally — even if much of that cash may be waiting on the sidelines, reluctant to participate.

Portfolio Update
I’m pleased to report that 99% of Issachar Fund assets have now been successfully transferred to Altruist, where I will continue to actively manage them according to Models: Stock, Fund, or BRI. I am more excited than ever to participate in what I believe may be the greatest investment opportunity I have seen in my 35 years of managing client capital.

“May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace as you trust in him.” Romans 15:13